The recent fluctuations in water levels at Medina Lake, located on the border of Bandera and Medina counties, have been a cause for concern for residents and officials alike. The lake’s surface elevation hit a record low of 970.05 feet above mean sea level on July 22, prompting worries about water scarcity and drought conditions in the area. However, there was a glimmer of hope when the lake’s elevation rose by about 6 feet in the following week, reaching 976.02 feet on July 29. Despite this increase, the lake was still only considered 3.6% full, but it was the highest rise in water levels seen since October 2018.
Unfortunately, the positive trend did not last long. A strong regime of high atmospheric pressure settled in, halting rain chances and causing the lake’s surface elevation to drop back to 975.34 feet by Thursday, leaving the lake only 3.5% full. With dry weather forecasted to continue, the decreasing lake levels show no signs of stopping, dropping at a rate of about half an inch per day. If substantial rainfall is not received soon, the lake is projected to drop an additional foot over the next three weeks.
San Antonio, which had a wet July with 4.25 inches of rain, has seen minimal precipitation since July 29, recording only 0.03 inches. Despite the city’s year-to-date rainfall of 19.48 inches being slightly above average through mid-August, the National Drought Mitigation Center still classifies San Antonio as being in a moderate drought. This classification is a result of the severe rainfall deficits experienced in 2022 and 2023, where the city averaged just above 15 inches of rain each year, less than half of the normal amount.
Looking ahead, the weather forecast for South Texas does not offer much hope for relief. High pressure and extreme heat are expected to dominate the region, with minimal chances of rain in the foreseeable future. The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for late August indicates below-normal precipitation for South Texas, further exacerbating drought conditions and leading to a continued decrease in lake levels.
In addition to Medina Lake, Canyon Lake is also experiencing a decline in water levels this month. Despite rising to 885.95 feet above sea level at the end of July, the surface elevation of Canyon Lake has dropped by more than 5 inches in August, down to 885.54 feet. The reservoir is currently only 57.1% full, with its surface elevation more than 23 feet below the conservation pool height.
Overall, the situation with the lakes in Bandera and Medina counties highlights the ongoing challenges posed by drought conditions and water scarcity in the region. As communities continue to grapple with these issues, it is essential for residents to conserve water and for officials to implement sustainable water management practices to ensure the long-term health and viability of these vital water sources.